The Rule 5 board: unprotected Triple-A players whose numbers travel
Preliminary: built from Nov. 11 rosters, before the Nov. 17 protection deadline. Some of these players will be added to 40-man rosters by then.
The finding Of 211 unprotected Triple-A pitchers with a full sample, 28 already grade at or above an average MLB pitcher’s stuff (Stuff+ 100+). The best arms by Stuff+: Andrew Schultz (STL, RP, Stuff+ 113); Carlos Lagrange (NYY, SP, Stuff+ 111); Kyle Nicolas (WSH, RP, Stuff+ 109); Marques Johnson (SF, RP, Stuff+ 109); Will Bednar (SF, RP, Stuff+ 109). The best bats on swing decisions and contact quality: Luke Adams (MIL, 1B, 281 PA); Paul McIntosh (PHI, C, 293 PA); Riley Adams (BOS, C, 325 PA); Rudy Martin Jr. (TOR, RF, 163 PA); Josh Kasevich (TOR, SS, 574 PA).
So what
- For pitchers, read the stuff before the stat line. Triple-A Stuff+ carried into MLB results (r = 0.14 for pitchers who moved up) and Triple-A results didn’t (r = −0.02). An exposed reliever with MLB-average stuff is the classic Rule 5 pick, because a bullpen can carry him all season.
- For hitters, weight chase and contact quality over batting average or xwOBA. Swing decisions hold up from one sample to the next; short-run results don’t. A Rule 5 hitter has to survive a full season on an MLB bench, so plate discipline is what keeps him there.
- Check the eligibility reason before acting on a name. Eligibility here is estimated from signing dates and ages, so hover the status for the reasoning. The draft itself is in doubt: it’s scheduled for Dec. 9, but the MLB phase only happens if a labor deal is in place after the CBA expires Dec. 1.
The full board, with organization, age, and sample filters and every Triple-A player who qualifies, is the Rule 5 board.
Who’s on the board
Clubs protect a player by adding him to the 40-man roster. Anyone left off who has been in pro ball long enough can be taken by another club, which then has to keep him on its major league roster all season or offer him back. The board starts from every 2026 Triple-A player, removes anyone on a 40-man roster as of Nov. 11, removes players who aren’t under contract (490 of this season’s Triple-A players elected free agency after the season and haven’t re-signed, so they can’t be drafted), and keeps those whose eligibility window has opened. That leaves 288 pitchers and 206 hitters. 23 of the pitchers pitched in the majors in 2026 and were later removed from a 40-man roster; they’re eligible and stay on the board, marked in the MLB G column.
The rankings lean on the measures that hold up across levels and samples. For pitchers that’s Stuff+, which grades velocity, movement, and release on the MLB scale and predicts the next season better than results do, plus strikeout-minus-walk rate. For hitters it’s chase rate, zone contact, 90th-percentile exit velocity, and hard-hit rate, as percentiles against qualified Triple-A hitters.
Method and caveats
Data. 2026 Triple-A Statcast (regular season) for performance; MLB Stats API for 40-man rosters (snapshot Nov. 11), birth dates, draft history, and transactions. Only aggregates are published.
Eligibility estimate. A player who was 18 or younger on the June 5 immediately preceding his first pro contract must be added to the 40-man roster within five seasons; 19 or older, within four. The signing year counts as a season if he signed before his first league’s season ended (rookie and complex leagues, late August). The signing date is his earliest signing with an MLB organization in the transaction record (Eligible). Without one, the draft year is used and the signing date is assumed to be mid-July (Likely eligible, 12 players). With neither, the status is Unknown (4). Players whose most recent transaction is electing free agency, a release, or retirement aren’t under contract and are left off.
Validation. The estimate was checked against 46 players named in published 2026 eligibility lists (34 listed as eligible this winter, 12 as not eligible until next year) from SoxProspects, Bucs on Deck, and MLB.com. It agreed on 46 of 46 (100%). The check list leans toward recent signees, where the rule is simplest; older players with gaps in the transaction record are where an estimate like this is most likely to be wrong.
Rankings. Pitchers in the finding met their role’s Triple-A pitch minimum (see the glossary); hitters had 150+ PA. The hitter ranking averages four percentiles with equal weight, a simple choice rather than a fitted model.
What this can’t tell you. Only Triple-A players are on the board, so eligible prospects at Double-A and below are missing. There’s no injury, scouting, or makeup information, and nothing about a club’s roster needs, which drive most picks. Edge cases in the rule (voided contracts, players signed out of foreign leagues, time on restricted lists) aren’t modeled. The MLB phase of the draft only happens if a labor agreement is in place; the minor league phase is expected to go ahead either way.
Code:baseball/rule5/ · scripts/pull_rosters.py